What’s concerning / risks

U.S. economy news

• real GDP annual rate of 3.8%, beating expectations
• corporate earnings are unusually strong
• marchine learning/AI infrastructure - significant growth driver (중요한 성장 동력)
• consumer spending, labour market are holding up better than feared

what’s concerning / risks

• underlying weakness - lower income households (softening spending, higher debt burdens)
• government shutdown is costing the economy - $15 billion per week
• slowing momentum (모멘텀 둔화)
• K-shaped : wealthy households continue benefiting from asset gains, while broad-based strength is less visible.

consumer sentiment (소비자 심리)

K-shaped recovery

• V-shape + L-shape : together the pattern diverges
• For example, tech, large-corporations, and asset-owners may bounce back quickly; meanwhile, hospitality, travel, small-business may have persistent losses.
• Higher-income worker vs lower income workers
• by region, by type of job, by income bracket (소득 계층)
• policy & structural factors : stimulus(경기부양책), monetary and fiscal policy(통화 및 재정정책), technological change(기술적 변화)

uncertainty is flagged as a major drag on future growth 불확실성은 미래 성장에 큰 걸림돌로 지적된다.

Sector & thematic concerns 부문 및 주제별 문제

• three possible asset bubbles

downside risks(하방 위험) trade disruption(무역 중단)

Supreme court U.S. Constitution - the power to impose tariffs principally lies with Congress litigation(소송)

lock-in effect